McLARTY UPDATE: Trump Raises the Stakes on the Korean Peninsula

Trump Raises the Stakes on the Korean Peninsula

March 9, 2018

KEY POINTS:

Trump’s sudden decision to meet North Korean leader Kim has raised stakes in a way that both entices and alarms. Given that it comes without detailed preparation, it is a roll of the dice.
On the positive side, Kim’s offer to suspend tests regardless of the upcoming annual US-South Korea military exercises is a genuine concession. It makes military action on the Korean peninsula unlikely at least for the next six weeks.
On the riskier side, an unprepared meeting could produce surprise outcomes, including leaving us worse off than we are now.
The balance of power in Northeast Asia may be in flux. If China perceives the direction of change to be other than favorable to its interest, it will change its posture and policy. The evolution of the North Korea issue will also inform China’s reaction to section 232 and prospective section 301 sanctions.
One cannot imagine a worse time to be punishing our allies Japan and Korea for steel and aluminum exports on national security grounds.
The pressure is on the White House to deliver now. If there is no substance to a prospective meeting but instead this proves to be an all too familiar device to distract from mounting domestic pressures, our friends, allies, and adversaries will react, potentially with tangible and significant damage to US national interests.

South Korean President Moon will meet Kim in April, presumably before Trump and Kim are to meet by the end of May. That will help to set the agenda for a US – North Korean meeting that is unformed at present. The range of potential outcomes is wide. The US has a challenge keeping its allies together on this surprise step that leaves Japanese Prime Minister Abe in an awkward position. His policy and his constituents are far more skeptical of Pyongyang than is President Moon and his constituency in South Korea.

Keeping China onside is also a huge challenge, especially in the context of drift in US-China relations toward more confrontational competition and escalation of trade frictions between the two. If the crisis on the peninsula starts to veer in directions that are unfavorable to China, it won’t sit idle.

What to watch for: who will lead the US preparations for the meeting with Kim; where will the meeting be held; what will be the agenda for the meeting; how will the Moon – Kim meeting factor into the prospective Trump meeting; will the annual US-South Korean military exercises affect the setting for the Trump-Kim meeting; and will China act as spoiler or supporter in the run-up?